投资 · 西方古典
托马斯·马尔萨斯：人口论·摘录 109
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
With these extraordinary encouragements to population, and every cause of depopulation, as we have supposed, removed, the numbers would necessarily increase faster than in any society that has ever yet been known. I have mentioned, on the authority of a pamphlet published by a Dr Styles and referred to by Dr Price, that the inhabitants of the back settlements of America doubled their numbers in fifteen years. England is certainly a more healthy country than the back settlements of America, and as we have supposed every house in the island to be airy and wholesome, and the encouragements to have a family greater even than with the back settlers, no probable reason can be assigned why the population should not double itself in less, if possible, than fifteen years. But to be quite sure that we do not go beyond the truth, we will only suppose the period of doubling to be twenty-five years, a ratio of increase which is well known to have taken place throughout all the Northern States of America.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位：Excerpt 109 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
马尔萨斯说，在鼓励生育且消除死亡因素的社会里，人口增长会比已知任何社会都快。他引用美国边远定居点十五年翻倍的数据，认为英国更健康、住房更通风、成家激励更大，翻倍可能更快。但为稳妥，他只按二十五年翻倍计算，这是北美北部各州公认的增速。核心是：人口按几何级数增长，且他刻意用保守假设来加强论证。今天看，这提醒我们做预测时宁可保守，也要看清增长趋势。
上下文
马尔萨斯在《人口论》中用美国人口数据作为经验依据，论证人口在有利条件下会快速翻倍，为后续食物增长跟不上埋下伏笔。
今日一问
你最近做的某个长期计划，是否也用了过于乐观的增长假设？换成保守数字会怎样？
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