投资 · 西方古典
托马斯·马尔萨斯:人口论·摘录 110
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
During the next period of doubling, where will the food be found to satisfy the importunate demands of the increasing numbers? Where is the fresh land to turn up? Where is the dressing necessary to improve that which is already in cultivation? There is no person with the smallest knowledge of land but would say that it was impossible that the average produce of the country could be increased during the second twenty-five years by a quantity equal to what it at present yields. Yet we will suppose this increase, however improbable, to take place. The exuberant strength of the argument allows of almost any concession. Even with this concession, however, there would be seven millions at the expiration of the second term unprovided for. A quantity of food equal to the frugal support of twenty-one millions, would be to be divided among twenty-eight millions.
出处:
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位:Excerpt 110 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录
白话
马尔萨斯追问:人口再翻一倍时,食物从哪来?新耕地在哪?肥料和改良从哪来?懂农业的人都会说,第二个二十五年里全国平均产量不可能再增加一倍。但他仍让步假设产量能翻倍,结果第二个周期结束时仍有七百万人没饭吃:够两千一百万人吃的粮食要分给两千八百万人。核心是:土地产出增长有限,人口增长更快,缺口必然出现。今天看,这提醒我们资源有限,增长不能只靠乐观假设。
上下文
马尔萨斯在《人口论》中对比人口几何增长与食物算术增长,用具体数字推演缺口,反驳无限进步论。
今日一问
你所在的团队或家庭,资源增长速度跟得上需求增长速度吗?缺口会在哪一年显现?
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