投资 · 西方古典

托马斯·马尔萨斯:人口论·摘录 95

托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资

The constancy of the laws of nature and of effects and causes is the foundation of all human knowledge, though far be it from me to say that the same power which framed and executes the laws of nature may not change them all 'in a moment, in the twinkling of an eye.' Such a change may undoubtedly happen. All that I mean to say is that it is impossible to infer it from reasoning. If without any previous observable symptoms or indications of a change, we can infer that a change will take place, we may as well make any assertion whatever and think it as unreasonable to be contradicted in affirming that the moon will come in contact with the earth tomorrow, as in saying that the sun will rise at its usual time.

出处: https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位:Excerpt 95 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录

白话

自然规律以及因果关系的恒常性是一切人类知识的基础。我绝不是说制定并执行自然规律的力量不能在一瞬间改变它们。这种改变无疑可能发生。我想说的是,不可能从推理中推断出这种改变。如果没有先前可观察的征兆或迹象,我们就能推断改变会发生,那我们不如随便断言,说月亮明天会撞地球,和说太阳照常升起一样,都认为反驳是不合理的。

上下文

马尔萨斯强调自然规律的恒常性是推理的前提,不能无征兆地推断规律改变。

今日一问

我们是否常在没有证据的情况下断言规律会改变?

公版作品;原文逐字取自 Project Gutenberg,仅摘录段落并附全书链接。

本文本为公版;底本与原文链接见上。 版权

← 返回原文库