投资 · 现代投资信
霍华德·马克斯:再谈风险·第13则
霍华德·马克斯《《再谈风险》》· Risk Revisited Again · 投资 · 决策 · 健康 · 财富
“Value at Risk” was supposed to tell the banks how much they could lose on a very bad day. During the crisis, however, VaR was often shown to have understated the risk, since the assumptions hadn’t been harsh enough. Given the fact that risk managers are required at banks and de rigueur elsewhere, I think more money was spent on risk management in the early 2000s than in the rest of history combined . . . and yet we experienced the worst financial crisis in 80 years. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them.
出处:
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2015-06-08-risk-revisited-again.pdf
定位:Memo, excerpt 13 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录
白话
风险价值模型本来是想告诉银行,在极端糟糕的日子里最多会亏多少。但金融危机一来,大家发现它常常低估风险,因为模型假设得不够狠。银行花大钱搞风险管理,结果还是没躲过八十年来最惨的危机。所以马克斯说,这些指标像VaR和夏普比率可以算、可以用,但别太当真,它们只是工具,不是保险。
上下文
霍华德·马克斯在2015年备忘录中回顾2008年金融危机,反思风险管理工具的局限。
今日一问
你依赖的风险指标,最近一次压力测试够狠吗?
版权仍存续;仅摘录并链接橡树资本官网原文,不托管全文。
你的邮箱
只用于发送原典。不发广告,不卖名单。
本文本版权仍存续,此处仅为短摘录;完整原文请访问上方官方链接。 版权