Warren Buffett：Berkshire 2017 Letter, Excerpt 2

We believe that the annual probability of a U.S. mega-catastrophe causing $400 billion or more of insured losses is about 2%. No one, of course, knows the correct probability. We do know, however, that the risk increases over time because of growth in both the number and value of structures located in catastrophe-vulnerable areas.

Source： https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf
Locator：2017 Chairman's Letter, excerpt 2 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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