Howard Marks：Know Where You Are
Howard Marks《You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.》· November 20, 2001 memo · Investing · Cognition · Decision · Human nature
We may never know where we're going, or when the tide will turn, but we had better have a good idea where we are.
Source：
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf
Locator：Memo, November 20, 2001 (closing paragraph) · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt
Reading
Forecasting the future is unreliable; knowing the current position in the cycle is what you can control.
Context
Marks' memo of November 20, 2001, written after the dot-com bust. He argues for abandoning macro forecasts and instead judging where we are in the cycle.
Today's question
If you cannot know tomorrow, can you say clearly where today sits in the cycle?
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