投资 · 现代投资信
沃伦·巴菲特：伯克希尔 2002 年致股东信·补录 2
沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2002 年致股东信》· 2002 Chairman's Letter · 投资
If, for example, you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a party to a very simple derivatives transaction – with your gain or loss derived from movements in the index. Derivatives contracts are of varying duration (running sometimes to 20 or more years) and their value is often tied to several variables. Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties to them. In the meantime, though, before a contract is settled, the counterparties record profits and losses – often huge in amount – in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing hands.
出处：
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2002pdf.pdf
定位：2002 Chairman's Letter, additional excerpt 2 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
巴菲特以标普500期货合约为例，说明衍生品交易很简单，盈亏取决于指数变动。但衍生品合约期限各异，有的长达20年以上，价值常与多个变量挂钩。除非有抵押或担保，否则最终价值还取决于交易对手的信用。在合约结算前，交易双方会在当期利润表中记录盈亏，金额往往巨大，却没有任何现金转手。这揭示了衍生品的风险：信用风险、流动性风险和会计处理可能掩盖真实风险。投资者应警惕衍生品带来的不透明风险。
上下文
2002年伯克希尔致股东信，巴菲特讨论衍生品的复杂性和风险。
今日一问
你的投资中是否涉及衍生品？你了解其交易对手的信用风险吗？
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