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大卫·李嘉图：政治经济学及赋税原理·摘录 316
大卫·李嘉图《政治经济学及赋税原理》· On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation · 投资
Adam Smith has justly observed, that it is extremely difficult to determine the rate of the profits of stock. "Profit is so fluctuating, that even in a particular trade, and much more in trades in general, it would be difficult to state the average rate of it. To judge of what it may have been formerly, or in remote periods of time, with any degree of precision, must be altogether impossible." Yet since it is evident that much will be given for the use of money, when much can be made by it, he suggests, that "the market rate of interest will lead us to form some notion of the rate of profits, and the history of the progress of interest afford us that of the progress of profits." Undoubtedly if the market rate of interest could be accurately known for any considerable period, we should have a tolerably correct criterion, by which to estimate the progress of profits.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/33310
定位：Excerpt 316 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
核心是：利润率难以直接确定，但利息率可以作为一个粗略的参照。亚当·斯密指出，利润波动很大，即使在一个行业，更不用说所有行业，都很难说出平均利润率；要精确判断过去或遥远时期的利润率更不可能。然而，当使用资金能赚很多时，人们也愿意为借钱支付很多，所以斯密建议：市场利息率可以让我们对利润率形成一些概念，利息的历史可以反映利润的历史。李嘉图同意，如果能准确知道一个较长时期的市场利息率，我们就能有一个相当可靠的尺度来估计利润的进展。但要注意，这只是参照，不是精确测量。
上下文
李嘉图讨论亚当·斯密关于利润率与利息率关系的观点，见于《政治经济学及赋税原理》论利润的部分。
今日一问
在缺乏直接数据时，你能否找到一个可观察的替代指标来推断你关心的趋势？
公版作品；原文逐字取自 Project Gutenberg，仅摘录段落并附全书链接。
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