人口论·摘录 164 · 托马斯·马尔萨斯

An immense capital could not be employed in China in preparing manufactures for foreign trade without taking off so many labourers from agriculture as to alter this state of things, and in some degree to diminish the produce of the country. The demand for manufacturing labourers would naturally raise the price of labour, but as the quantity of subsistence would not be increased, the price of provisions would keep pace with it, or even more than keep pace with it if the quantity of provisions were really decreasing. The country would be evidently advancing in wealth, the exchangeable value of the annual produce of its land and labour would be annually augmented, yet the real funds for the maintenance of labour would be stationary, or even declining, and, consequently, the increasing wealth of the nation would rather tend to depress than to raise the condition of the poor. With regard to the command over the necessaries and comforts of life, they would be in the same or rather worse state than before; and a great part of them would have exchanged the healthy labours of agriculture for the unhealthy occupations of manufacturing industry.

出处： https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位：Excerpt 164 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录

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马尔萨斯设想：在中国投入巨资生产外贸商品，会抽走大量农业劳动力，改变现状，减少本国产出。制造业劳动力需求会抬高工资，但食物不增，粮价会同步上涨，甚至更快。国家财富增加，年产品交换价值上升，但维持劳动的实际基金停滞或下降，穷人状况可能更差。他们用健康的农业劳动换来了不健康的制造业工作。

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马尔萨斯在《人口论》中分析中国若发展外贸制造业对穷人的影响。

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如果一项投资能增加国家财富却恶化穷人生活，我们该如何取舍？

公版作品；原文逐字取自 Project Gutenberg，仅摘录段落并附全书链接。

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