投资 · 西方古典
托马斯·马尔萨斯:人口论·摘录 87
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
But in this process of industry and happiness, each generation will be called to more extended enjoyments, and in consequence, by the physical constitution of the human frame, to an increase in the number of individuals. Must not there arrive a period then, when these laws, equally necessary, shall counteract each other? When the increase of the number of men surpassing their means of subsistence, the necessary result must be either a continual diminution of happiness and population, a movement truly retrograde, or, at least, a kind of oscillation between good and evil? In societies arrived at this term, will not this oscillation be a constantly subsisting cause of periodical misery? Will it not mark the limit when all further amelioration will become impossible, and point out that term to the perfectibility of the human race which it may reach in the course of ages, but can never pass?
出处:
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位:Excerpt 87 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录
白话
马尔萨斯设想:随着产业和幸福扩展,每代人享受更多,人口也会因生理规律而增加。但人口增长终会超过食物供给,这时两条同样必要的规律互相冲突。结果要么是幸福和人口同时下降,社会倒退;要么在好坏之间反复震荡,形成周期性苦难。这就像给人类完善设了一个天花板:可以接近,却永远无法突破。这提醒我们:任何进步方案都要考虑资源上限,否则乐观预期会落空。
上下文
马尔萨斯在《人口论》中反驳孔多塞的人类无限完善论,提出人口与生存资料的周期性矛盾。
今日一问
你规划未来时,有没有为资源上限留出缓冲,还是假设增长可以无限持续?
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