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托马斯·马尔萨斯：人口论·摘录 89
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
Mr Condorcet's picture of what may be expected to happen when the number of men shall surpass the means of their subsistence is justly drawn. The oscillation which he describes will certainly take place and will without doubt be a constantly subsisting cause of periodical misery. The only point in which I differ from Mr Condorcet with regard to this picture is the period when it may be applied to the human race. Mr Condorcet thinks that it cannot possibly be applicable but at an era extremely distant. If the proportion between the natural increase of population and food which I have given be in any degree near the truth, it will appear, on the contrary, that the period when the number of men surpass their means of subsistence has long since arrived, and that this necessity oscillation, this constantly subsisting cause of periodical misery, has existed ever since we have had any histories of mankind, does exist at present, and will for ever continue to exist, unless some decided change take place in the physical constitution of our nature.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位：Excerpt 89 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
马尔萨斯同意孔多塞对“人口超过食物后会发生什么”的描述：震荡和周期性苦难确实会出现。分歧只在时间：孔多塞认为那是极遥远的未来，马尔萨斯却认为，按人口自然增长快于食物的比例，这个临界点早已到来，而且贯穿全部历史，现在存在，将来也会继续，除非人的生理构造发生根本改变。这提醒我们：不要因为问题看似遥远就拖延，它可能已经在发生，只是我们没注意。
上下文
马尔萨斯在《人口论》中与孔多塞辩论人口过剩的时间点，认为矛盾早已存在而非遥远未来。
今日一问
你身边有没有被当作“遥远未来”的问题，其实已经在悄悄发生？
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