投资 · 西方古典
弗雷德里克·巴斯夏：经济诡辩·摘录 213
弗雷德里克·巴斯夏《经济诡辩》· Economic Sophisms · 投资
Remark this: A nation isolates itself looking forward to the possibility of war; but is not this very act of isolating itself the beginning of war? It renders war more easy, less burdensome, and, it may be, less unpopular. Let countries be permanent markets for each other's produce; let their reciprocal relations be such that they cannot be broken without inflicting on each other the double suffering of privation and a glut of commodities; and they will no longer stand in need of naval armaments, which ruin them, and overgrown armies, which crush them; the peace of the world will not then be compromised by the caprice of a Thiers or of a Palmerston; and war will disappear for want of what supports it, for want of resources, inducements, pretexts, and popular sympathy.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/44145
定位：Excerpt 213 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
巴师夏反驳“为备战而闭关”：一国为了防战争而自我孤立，这本身就是战争的开始。孤立让战争更容易发动、负担更轻、更少遭民众反对。反过来，如果各国互为长期市场，贸易纽带一断双方都遭殃——既缺货又积压——他们就不再需要昂贵的海军和压垮人的常备军。到那时，战争会因为缺乏资源、动机、借口和民意支持而消失。可执行的做法是：用相互依赖降低冲突成本，而不是用孤立来备战。
上下文
巴师夏《经济诡辩》针对以战争风险为由的贸易保护，提出贸易和平论。
今日一问
你更愿意用隔离还是用相互依赖来防范冲突？
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