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霍华德·马克斯:敢于伟大 II·第6则
霍华德·马克斯《《敢于伟大 II》》· Dare to Be Great II · 投资 · 财富 · 认知 · 决策
Any attempt to compile superior investment results has to entail acceptance of the possibility of being wrong. The matrix on page two shows that since conventional behavior is sure to produce average performance, people who want to be above average can’t expect to get there by engaging in conventional behavior. Their behavior has to be different. And in the course of trying to be different and better, they have to bear the risk of being different and worse. That truth is simply unarguable. There is no way to strive for the former that doesn’t require bearing the risk of the latter. The truth is, almost everything about superior investing is a two-edged sword: If you invest, you will lose money if the market declines. If you don’t invest, you will miss out on gains if the market rises.
出处:
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2014-04-08-dare-to-be-great-ii.pdf
定位:Memo, excerpt 6 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录
白话
想做出超过平均的成绩,就必须接受自己可能犯错。原因在于:随大流的行为注定只能带来平均的结果,所以想高于平均,做法就得跟别人不同;而一旦选择不同,你同时也就承担了“不同且更糟”的风险,这一点没法绕开。想追求更好的结果,就不可能不冒变差的风险。说白了,卓越投资里几乎每件事都是一把双刃剑:你投了,市场跌就亏钱;你不投,市场涨就错过。关键不是找一条没有风险的路,而是认清风险后仍然做出选择。
上下文
马克斯在2014年备忘录《敢为人先》续篇中,用风险的两面性说明追求卓越的代价。
今日一问
你最近一次为了追求更好结果,主动承担了哪种可承受的风险?
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