霍华德·马克斯：风险·第7则

Let’s say someone makes an investment that works out as expected (or better). Does that mean it wasn’t risky? Or let’s say the investment produces a loss. Does that mean it was risky? Or that it should have been perceived as risky at the time it was analyzed and entered into? If you think about it, the response to these questions is simple: The fact that something happened doesn’t mean it was likely, and the fact that something didn’t happen doesn’t mean it was improbable. Improbable things happen all the time, just as likely things often fail to occur.

出处： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-01-19-risk.pdf
定位：Memo, excerpt 7 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录

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