投资 · 现代投资信
霍华德·马克斯：信心的作用·第11则
霍华德·马克斯《《信心的作用》》· The Role of Confidence · 投资 · 财富
The point is that no mechanical tools can enable investors to prosper under all circumstances. They can provide tilts or reduce exposures, but the tool that promises a mix of good results and great results without the possibility of bad results is too good to be true. And when excessive confidence develops in such things, investors are heading for trouble. The same is true for the Greenspan put and its successor, the Bernanke put. Alan Greenspan’s tenure as Fed chairman was marked by efforts to avoid problems by injecting liquidity and lowering interest rates. Investors put great stock in his ability to keep things moving ever upward. His policies prevented occasional corrections along the way, but the price paid was a big one: the financial crisis of 2008.
出处：
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2013-08-05-the-role-of-confidence.pdf
定位：Memo, excerpt 11 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
马克斯要打破的是一种幻想：以为存在某种机械工具或某个能人，可以让人在任何环境下都赚钱。工具最多只能调整仓位轻重、减少暴露，做不到只赚不亏。所谓既能稳赚又能大赚、还不会亏的东西，好得不像真的，一旦大家对它信心爆棚，麻烦就来了。他拿“格林斯潘看跌期权”举例：格林斯潘当美联储主席时，习惯靠注入流动性、降息来避免出问题，投资者深信他能让市场一直涨。这套做法确实压住了平时的小调整，但代价是泡沫越积越大，最终引爆2008年金融危机。所以别把政策托底当成保险，它只是把风险往后推。
上下文
马克斯在《信心的角色》中批评投资者对美联储托底的迷信，回顾格林斯潘与伯南克时期。
今日一问
你依赖的“总有人兜底”的假设，最坏情况下还成立吗？
版权仍存续；仅摘录并链接橡树资本官网原文，不托管全文。
你的邮箱
只用于发送原典。不发广告，不卖名单。
本文本版权仍存续，此处仅为短摘录；完整原文请访问上方官方链接。 版权