投资 · 西方古典
大卫·李嘉图：政治经济学及赋税原理·摘录 64
大卫·李嘉图《政治经济学及赋税原理》· On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation · 投资
It is undoubtedly true, that the fall in the relative price of raw produce, in consequence of the improvement in agriculture, or rather in consequence of less labour being bestowed on its production, would naturally lead to increased accumulation; for the profits of stock would be greatly augmented. This accumulation would lead to an increased demand for labour, to higher wages, to an increased population, to a further demand for raw produce, and to an increased cultivation. It is only, however, after the increase in the population, that rent would be as high as before; that is to say, after No. 3 was taken into cultivation. A considerable period would have elapsed, attended with a positive diminution of rent.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/33310
定位：Excerpt 64 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
农业改良使农产品相对价格下降，因为生产所需劳动减少，这会提高利润，促进资本积累。积累增加对劳动的需求，推高工资，人口增长，又增加对农产品的需求，促使进一步耕种。但只有等到人口增长后，地租才会回到原来水平，即重新耕种3级地。这需要相当长的时间，期间地租会绝对下降。所以，改良的短期效果是地租下降，长期可能被人口增长抵消。可操作的做法：区分短期和长期效应，别把长期趋势当短期结果。
上下文
李嘉图《政治经济学及赋税原理》论地租，分析改良、积累与人口动态。
今日一问
你评估政策效果时，是否区分了短期和长期，避免把长期趋势当成立即结果？
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