人口论·摘录 127 · 托马斯·马尔萨斯

As in these and similar instances, or to take a larger range, as in the great diversity of characters that have existed during some thousand years, no decided difference has been observed in the duration of human life from the operation of intellect, the mortality of man on earth seems to be as completely established, and exactly upon the same grounds, as any one, the most constant, of the laws of nature. An immediate act of power in the Creator of the Universe might, indeed, change one or all of these laws, either suddenly or gradually, but without some indications of such a change, and such indications do not exist, it. Is just as unphilosophical to suppose that the life of man may be prolonged beyond any assignable limits, as to suppose that the attraction of the earth will gradually be changed into repulsion and that stones will ultimately rise instead of fall or that the earth will fly off at a certain period to some more genial and warmer sun.

出处： https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位：Excerpt 127 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录

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从历史看，几千年来人物性格多样，但智力高低并未明显改变人类寿命，所以死亡像自然规律一样牢固。马尔萨斯说，除非造物主直接改变规律，否则没有迹象就假设人能无限延长寿命，和假设地心引力会变成斥力、石头会往上掉一样不哲学。核心是：不要凭愿望推翻经验规律；可执行的是，把寿命预期建立在可观察证据上，而不是空想。

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马尔萨斯在《人口论》中反驳戈德温等人对人类可完善性的乐观设想，强调自然规律的稳定性。

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我是否曾用愿望代替证据，去相信某种“无限延长”或“彻底突破”的可能？

公版作品；原文逐字取自 Project Gutenberg，仅摘录段落并附全书链接。

健康 · 龚廷贤《寿世保元》

上盛下虚。痰涎壅盛。喘促短气。咳嗽而喘者。 \x苏子降气湯\x 苏子（三錢）陈皮浓朴（姜汁炒各一錢）前胡肉桂（各二錢）半夏（姜汁炒五錢）当归（三錢）甘草（一錢）上锉。姜、枣煎服。一論凡人痰嗽气喘。宜服 \x三子养亲湯\x 白芥子（研八分）萝卜子（研八分）南星（水泡八分）半夏（水泡八分）陈皮（去白六分）枳實（炒六分）片芩（去朽八分）赤茯苓（去皮八分）苏子（研八分）甘草（二分）上锉一剂。生姜三片。水煎温服。一人体肥善饮。仲秋痰…

上盛下虚、痰涎壅盛、喘促短气、咳嗽而喘的，用苏子降气汤：苏子三钱、陈皮、厚朴（姜汁炒）各一钱、前胡、肉桂各二钱、半夏（姜汁炒）五钱、当归三钱、甘草一钱。锉碎，加姜、枣煎服。凡人痰嗽气喘，宜三子养亲汤：白芥子（研）八分、萝卜子（研）八分、南星（水泡）八分、半夏（水泡）八分、陈皮（去白）六分、枳实（炒）六分、片芩（去朽）八分、赤茯苓（去皮）八分、苏子（研）八分、甘草二分。锉一剂，加生姜三片，水煎温服。一人体肥善饮，仲秋痰喘，用二陈、芩、连更甚；加桑皮、杏仁，盗汗气促；加贝母、枳壳，不时发热。医生认为是脾肺虚寒，用八味丸补土母，补中益气汤接补中气。

事业 · 普鲁塔克《希腊罗马名人传》

There is no judgment to be made of fortune; nor can any reasoning bring us to a certainty about it. If Nicias had run the risk with Alcibiades, whether of the two should undergo the ostracism, he had either prevailed,…

命运无法预测，理性也难保万全。以尼西阿斯为例：若他与阿尔西比亚德斯竞争陶片放逐，无论输赢都可能避免后来的惨败——赢则对手被逐，自己安全；输则离开政坛，保全名将声誉。但历史没有如果。这提醒我们，面对重大抉择时，不要只盯着一种可能，要设想不同结果并评估风险。同时，信息要可靠，像提奥弗拉斯托斯那样的异说需谨慎对待。决策前多收集证据，权衡利弊，才能减少事后遗憾。

事业 · 本杰明·富兰克林《本杰明·富兰克林自传》

The British government, not chusing to permit the union of the colonies as propos'd at Albany, and to trust that union with their defense, lest they should thereby grow too military, and feel their own strength,…

英国政府不愿让殖民地按奥尔巴尼会议提议联合起来，也不放心把防务交给这个联盟，怕他们因此变得过于军事化、意识到自身力量，当时对他们已有猜忌。于是派布拉多克将军带两个英国正规军团前来。他在弗吉尼亚亚历山德里亚登陆，行军到马里兰弗雷德里克敦，停下等车辆。我们的议会从一些消息中担心他对议会抱有强烈偏见，认为议会不愿配合，希望我去拜访他，但不是以议会名义，而是以邮政总长身份，借口与他商定最迅速可靠地处理他与各殖民地总督之间必要频繁通信的方式，费用由议会支付。我儿子陪我同行。

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