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托马斯·马尔萨斯:人口论·摘录 40
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
Notwithstanding the exaggerations of some old historians, there can remain no doubt in the mind of any thinking man that the population of the principal countries of Europe, France, England, Germany, Russia, Poland, Sweden, and Denmark is much greater than ever it was in former times. The obvious reason of these exaggerations is the formidable aspect that even a thinly peopled nation must have, when collected together and moving all at once in search of fresh seats. If to this tremendous appearance be added a succession at certain intervals of similar emigrations, we shall not be much surprised that the fears of the timid nations of the South represented the North as a region absolutely swarming with human beings. A nearer and juster view of the subject at present enables us to see that the inference was as absurd as if a man in this country, who was continually meeting on the road droves of cattle from Wales and the North, was immediately to conclude that these countries were the most productive of all the parts of the kingdom.
出处:
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位:Excerpt 40 · 核对日期:2026-10-19 · 核验:短摘录
白话
尽管古代史家夸大其词,但任何有思考力的人都无法怀疑:欧洲主要国家(法国、英国、德国、俄罗斯、波兰、瑞典、丹麦)的人口比以往任何时候都多。夸大的明显原因是,即使人口稀少的民族,一旦集体迁徙寻找新居所,也会显得声势浩大。如果再加上每隔一段时间就出现类似移民,南方胆怯的民族把北方想象成人满为患也就不奇怪了。更近、更公正的观察让我们看到,这种推断很荒谬,就像一个人在路上不断遇到从威尔士和北方赶来的牛群,就断定这些地方是全国最盛产牛的地方一样。
上下文
马尔萨斯反驳古代史家对北方民族人口的夸大,用牛群比喻说明迁徙规模不等于人口密度。
今日一问
我们是否也常把“看到的规模”误当成“背后的总量”,从而做出错误判断?
公版作品;原文逐字取自 Project Gutenberg,仅摘录段落并附全书链接。
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