投资 · 现代投资信
霍华德·马克斯：风险·第3则
霍华德·马克斯《《风险》》· Risk · 投资 · 决策 · 财富 · 认知
According to the academicians who developed Capital Market Theory, risk equals volatility, because volatility indicates the unreliability of an investment. I take great issue with this definition of risk. It’s my view that – knowingly or unknowingly – academicians settled on volatility as the proxy for risk as a matter of convenience. They needed a number for their calculations that was objective and could be ascertained historically and extrapolated into the future. Volatility fits the bill, and most of the other types of risk do not. The problem with all of this, however, is that I just don’t think volatility is the risk most investors care about.
出处：
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-01-19-risk.pdf
定位：Memo, excerpt 3 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
学院派认为风险就是波动性，因为波动代表投资回报不稳定。但马克斯强烈反对这个定义。他觉得学者们为了方便计算，选了波动性作为风险的代理指标，因为它客观、可历史回测、可外推。其他风险难以量化，就被忽略了。然而，大多数投资者真正担心的不是价格上下波动，而是本金的永久性损失。把风险等同于波动性，会让人误以为只要价格波动大就是风险高，而忽视了真正该警惕的亏钱可能。
上下文
马克斯在《风险》一文中挑战现代金融理论，指出波动性并非投资者真正关心的风险。
今日一问
你如何区分价格波动和本金永久损失的风险？
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