投资 · 现代投资信
霍华德·马克斯：你无法预测，但可以准备·第5则
霍华德·马克斯《《你无法预测，但可以准备》》· You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare. · 财富 · 投资 · 行动
Of course, at the extreme the process is ready to be reversed again. Because the competition to make loans or investments is low, high returns can be demanded along with high creditworthiness. Contrarians who commit capital at this point have a shot at high returns, and those tempting potential returns begin to draw in capital. In this way, a recovery begins to be fueled. I stated earlier that cycles are self-correcting. The credit cycle corrects itself through the processes described above, and it represents one of the factors driving the fluctuations of the economic cycle. Prosperity brings expanded lending, which leads to unwise lending, which produces large losses, which makes lenders stop lending, which ends prosperity, and on and on.
出处：
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf
定位：Memo, excerpt 5 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
周期走到极端就会自己掉头。信贷市场最冷时，放贷和投资的竞争很少，出资人既能要求高回报，又能挑信用好的对象。敢在这时投钱的反向投资者，有机会拿到高收益；而诱人的回报又会把资金吸引回来，复苏就这样被点燃。所以周期是自我修正的：繁荣带来放贷扩张，扩张带来不明智的放贷，坏账造成大损失，损失让银行停贷，停贷终结繁荣，然后循环再来。
上下文
马克斯在文中解释信贷周期如何自我修正，并把它看作推动经济周期波动的因素之一。
今日一问
当身边没人愿意放贷或投资时，你能不能冷静判断这是不是机会？
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