《你无法预测，但可以准备》

Those who have been readers of my memos for any meaningful period of time know there are a few things I dismiss and a few I believe in thoroughly.…

Cycles are inevitable . Every once in a while, an up-or down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme and people start to say "this time…

So forecasts are unlikely to help us foresee the movements of the economic cycle. Nevertheless, we must be aware that it exists and repeats. The…

How can non-forecasters like Oaktree best cope with the ups and downs of the economic cycle? I think the answer lies in knowing where we are and…

Of course, at the extreme the process is ready to be reversed again. Because the competition to make loans or investments is low, high returns can be…

In making investments, it has become my habit to worry less about the economic future – which I'm sure I can't know much about – than I do about…

Most companies are born in an entrepreneurial mode, starting with dreams, limited capital and the need to be frugal. `Success comes to some. They…

The exigencies of the corporate life cycle usually render ultra-high growth rates unsustainable. Regardless of the improbability, however,…

At the University of Chicago, I was taught that the value of an asset is the discounted present value of its future cash flows. If this is true, we…

For decades – literally – I've been lugging around what I thought was a particularly apt enumeration of the three stages of a bull market: the first,…

But somehow, the stocks did stop going up. And then they started going down. I don't think anyone can say just what it was that caused the tech…

In the New Economy, the front office seemed persuaded, there would be no recession (let alone a global recession) and no bear market (especially…

Having said that, I want to point out emphatically that many of those who complained about the excessive market valuations – including me – started…