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霍华德·马克斯：你无法预测，但可以准备·第12则
霍华德·马克斯《《你无法预测，但可以准备》》· You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare. · 投资 · 认知 · 领导 · 人性
But somehow, the stocks did stop going up. And then they started going down. I don't think anyone can say just what it was that caused the tech bubble to burst. Certainly I can't think of any one thing – even in hindsight, which is usually 20:20. Maybe the groundwork was laid for declines when it was shown merely that the rise could slow. Maybe a few smart people, to paraphrase the third of the three stages, concluded that everything wouldn't get better forever. The best explanation probably is that the prices just collapsed under their own weight.
出处：
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf
定位：Memo, excerpt 12 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
科技股泡沫的破裂很难归因于单一事件。事后看，可能只是上涨放缓的迹象就动摇了信心，或者一些聪明人意识到“一切不会永远变好”，于是开始卖出。但最合理的解释是价格在自身重量下崩溃——当价格远远脱离基本面，任何风吹草动都可能引发抛售，而抛售又导致更多抛售。这告诉我们，泡沫的破裂往往没有明确导火索，而是内在脆弱性的必然结果。投资者应关注价格与价值的背离，而非试图预测具体触发事件。
上下文
霍华德·马克斯在2001年备忘录中回顾互联网泡沫破裂，反思市场崩溃的不可预测性。
今日一问
你持有的资产中，有哪些价格已远远脱离基本面，可能因自身重量而崩溃？
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