Howard Marks：Risk Revisited Again, Excerpt 2

If you make an investment in 2012, you’ll know in 2014 whether you lost money (and how much), but you won’t know whether it was a risky investment – that is, what the probability of loss was at the time you made it. To continue the analogy, it may rain tomorrow, or it may not, but nothing that happens tomorrow will tell you what the probability of rain was as of today. And the risk of rain is a very good analogue (although I’m sure not perfect) for the risk of loss.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2015-06-08-risk-revisited-again.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 2 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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