Howard Marks：Risk Revisited Again, Excerpt 4

The information we’re able to estimate – the list of events that might happen and how likely each one is – can be used to construct a probability distribution. Key point number one in this memo is that the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2015-06-08-risk-revisited-again.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 4 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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