Howard Marks：You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare., Excerpt 3

So forecasts are unlikely to help us foresee the movements of the economic cycle. Nevertheless, we must be aware that it exists and repeats. The greatest mistakes with regard to the economic cycle result from a willingness to believe that it will not recur. But it always does – and those gullible enough to believe it won't tend to lose money. When we marketed our first distressed debt fund in 1988, most of the resistance came from people who said, "maybe there won't be a recession, and thus nothing for you to buy." Of course, we were deep into a recession within two years, and our 1988-92 distressed debt funds found lots to buy and produced excellent returns. Eminent observers concluded again in the 1990s that the cycle had been eliminated and there would be no recession.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 3 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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