Howard Marks：You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare., Excerpt 14

Having said that, I want to point out emphatically that many of those who complained about the excessive market valuations – including me – started to do so years too soon. And for a long time, another of my old standards was proved true: "being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong." Some of the cautious investors ran out of staying power, losing their jobs or their clients because of having missed the gains. Some capitulated and, having missed the gains, jumped in just in time to participate in the losses. So I'm not trying to give the impression that coping with cycles is easy. But I do think it's a necessary effort. We may never know where we're going, or when the tide will turn, but we had better have a good idea where we are.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2001-11-20-you-cant-predict-you-can-prepare.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 14 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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