投资 · 西方古典
托马斯·马尔萨斯：人口论·摘录 78
托马斯·马尔萨斯《人口论》· An Essay on the Principle of Population · 投资
In New Jersey, the proportion of births to deaths on an average of seven years, ending in 1743, was as 300 to 100. In France and England, taking the highest proportion, it is as 117 to 100. Great and astonishing as this difference is, we ought not to be so wonder-struck at it as to attribute it to the miraculous interposition of heaven. The causes of it are not remote, latent and mysterious; but near us, round about us, and open to the investigation of every inquiring mind. It accords with the most liberal spirit of philosophy to suppose that not a stone can fall, or a plant rise, without the immediate agency of divine power. But we know from experience that these operations of what we call nature have been conducted almost invariably according to fixed laws. And since the world began, the causes of population and depopulation have probably been as constant as any of the laws of nature with which we are acquainted.
出处：
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/4239
定位：Excerpt 78 · 核对日期：2026-10-19 · 核验：短摘录
白话
马尔萨斯用数据说明：新泽西出生与死亡之比高达300比100，而英法最高也只有117比100，差距惊人。但他反对把这归为天意神迹，认为原因就在身边，人人可查。他承认自然现象背后有神的安排，但经验告诉我们，自然运行遵循固定规律。因此，人口增减的原因也像自然规律一样恒定，不是神秘难测的。核心是：人口现象有规律可循，应像研究自然一样去研究它，而不是诉诸奇迹。
上下文
马尔萨斯《人口论》1798年初版，反驳乌托邦式乐观，主张人口增长受食物限制。
今日一问
你遇到难以解释的社会现象时，是先归因于命运，还是先寻找可观察的规律？
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