Howard Marks：Risk Revisited Again, Excerpt 7

Risk shows up lumpily. If we say “2% of mortgages default each year,” and even if that’s true when we look at a multi-year average, an unusual spate of defaults can occur at a point in time, sinking a structured finance vehicle. Ben Graham and David Dodd put it this way: “. . . the relation between different kinds of investments and the risk of loss is entirely too indefinite, and too variable with changing conditions, to permit of sound mathematical formulation. This is particularly true because investment losses are not distributed fairly evenly in point of time, but tend to be concentrated at intervals . . .” (Security Analysis, 1940 Edition). It’s invariably the case that some investors – especially those who employ high leverage – will fail to survive at those intervals.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2015-06-08-risk-revisited-again.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 7 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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