Howard Marks：The Role of Confidence, Excerpt 7

I’m thinking back to 1994, when NAFTA was enacted, easing trade in North America. People were in awe of Mexico: “It’s just like the U.S., but it grows much faster.” So money flowed to Mexican stocks, and they boomed. But then, in short order, there occurred a revolt in the state of Chiapas, the assassination of a presidential candidate, and the devaluation of the Mexican peso, triggering the so-called “Tequila Crisis.” And the pendulum swung back toward concern: “Oh, right – there are differences.” And just a few years ago, the consensus of investors held that it was all over for the developed world, and China was the only economy with potential thanks to its growing population, low labor costs and expanding consumer class.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2013-08-05-the-role-of-confidence.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 7 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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