Paul Graham：Black Swan Farming, Excerpt 5

Which means that even if we're generous to ourselves and assume that YC can on average triple a startup's expected value, we'd be taking the right amount of risk if only 30% of the startups were able to raise significant funding after Demo Day. I don't know what fraction of them currently raise more after Demo Day. I deliberately avoid calculating that number, because if you start measuring something you start optimizing it, and I know it's the wrong thing to optimize.

Source： https://paulgraham.com/swan.html
Locator：Essay, additional excerpt 5 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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