Howard Marks：Risk Revisited Again, Excerpt 5

Backgammon players are usually quite happy to make a move that will enable them to win unless the opponent rolls twelve, since only one combination of the dice will produce it: 6-6. The probability of rolling twelve is thus only 1 in 36, or less than 3%. But twelve does come up from time to time, and the people it turns into losers end up complaining about having done the “right” thing but lost. As my friend Bruce Newberg says, “There’s a big difference between probability and outcome.” Unlikely things happen – and likely things fail to happen – all the time. Probabilities are likelihoods and very far from certainties.

Source： https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2015-06-08-risk-revisited-again.pdf
Locator：Memo, excerpt 5 · Verified：2026-10-19 · Verification：Short excerpt

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