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投资

财富、风险、周期与决策。

1324 条原文

投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2013 年致股东信》· 2013 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2013 年致股东信·摘录4
Over the stock market cycle between yearends 2007 and 2013, we overperformed the S&P. Through full cycles in future years, we expect to do that again…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2014 年致股东信》· 2014 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2014 年致股东信·摘录1
During our tenure, we have consistently compared the yearly performance of the S&P 500 to the change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. We’ve…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2014 年致股东信》· 2014 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2014 年致股东信·摘录2
Today, our emphasis has shifted in a major way to owning and operating large businesses. Many of these are worth far more than their cost-based…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2014 年致股东信》· 2014 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2014 年致股东信·摘录3
With that in mind, we have added a new set of data – the historical record of Berkshire’s stock price – to the performance table on the facing page.…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2014 年致股东信》· 2014 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2014 年致股东信·摘录4
It was a good year for Berkshire on all major fronts, except one. Here are the important developments: ‹ Our “Powerhouse Five” – a collection of…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2015 年致股东信》· 2015 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2015 年致股东信·摘录1
By the early 1990s, however, our focus had changed to the outright ownership of businesses, a shift that diminished the relevance of balance-sheet…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2015 年致股东信》· 2015 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2015 年致股东信·摘录2
Over time, this asymmetrical accounting treatment (with which we agree) necessarily widens the gap between intrinsic value and book value. Today, the…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2015 年致股东信》· 2015 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2015 年致股东信·摘录3
The unrecorded increase in the value of our owned businesses explains why Berkshire’s aggregate market- value gain – tabulated on the facing page –…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2015 年致股东信》· 2015 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2015 年致股东信·摘录4
Charlie Munger, Berkshire Vice Chairman and my partner, and I expect Berkshire’s normalized earning power to increase every year. (Actual…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2016 年致股东信》· 2016 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2016 年致股东信·摘录1
By the early 1990s, however, our focus was changing to the outright ownership of businesses, a shift that materially diminished the relevance of…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2016 年致股东信》· 2016 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2016 年致股东信·摘录2
We’ve experienced both outcomes: As is the case in marriage, business acquisitions often deliver surprises after the “I do’s.” I’ve made some dumb…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2016 年致股东信》· 2016 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2016 年致股东信·摘录3
We have no quarrel with the asymmetrical accounting that applies here. But, over time, it necessarily widens the gap between Berkshire’s intrinsic…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2016 年致股东信》· 2016 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2016 年致股东信·摘录4
Over time, stock prices gravitate toward intrinsic value. That’s what has happened at Berkshire, a fact explaining why the company’s 52-year…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2017 年致股东信》· 2017 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2017 年致股东信·摘录1
Despite its recent acquisitions, HomeServices is on track to do only about 3% of the country’s home- brokerage business in 2018. That leaves 97% to…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2017 年致股东信》· 2017 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2017 年致股东信·摘录2
We believe that the annual probability of a U.S. mega-catastrophe causing $400 billion or more of insured losses is about 2%. No one, of course,…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2017 年致股东信》· 2017 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2017 年致股东信·摘录3
No company comes close to Berkshire in being financially prepared for a $400 billion mega-cat. Our share of such a loss might be $12 billion or so,…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2017 年致股东信》· 2017 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2017 年致股东信·摘录4
Viewed as a group – and excluding investment income – our operations other than insurance delivered pre- tax income of $20 billion in 2017, an…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2018 年致股东信》· 2018 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2018 年致股东信·摘录1
Berkshire earned $4.0 billion in 2018 utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The components of that figure are…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2018 年致股东信》· 2018 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2018 年致股东信·摘录2
The accuracy of that prediction can be suggested by our quarterly results during 2018. In the first and fourth quarters, we reported GAAP losses of $…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2018 年致股东信》· 2018 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2018 年致股东信·摘录3
Wide swings in our quarterly GAAP earnings will inevitably continue. That’s because our huge equity portfolio – valued at nearly $173 billion at…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2018 年致股东信》· 2018 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2018 年致股东信·摘录4
Our advice? Focus on operating earnings, paying little attention to gains or losses of any variety. My saying that in no way diminishes the…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2019 年致股东信》· 2019 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2019 年致股东信·摘录1
Berkshire earned $81.4 billion in 2019 according to generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The components of that…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2019 年致股东信》· 2019 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2019 年致股东信·摘录2
The adoption of the rule by the accounting profession, in fact, was a monumental shift in its own thinking. Before 2018, GAAP insisted – with an…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2019 年致股东信》· 2019 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2019 年致股东信·摘录3
Berkshire’s 2018 and 2019 years glaringly illustrate the argument we have with the new rule. In 2018, a down year for the stock market, our net…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2019 年致股东信》· 2019 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2019 年致股东信·摘录4
Meanwhile, in what we might call the real world, as opposed to accounting-land, Berkshire’s equity holdings averaged about $200 billion during the…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2020 年致股东信》· 2020 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2020 年致股东信·摘录1
Berkshire earned $42.5 billion in 2020 according to generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The four components of that…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2020 年致股东信》· 2020 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2020 年致股东信·摘录2
Operating earnings are what count most, even during periods when they are not the largest item in our GAAP total. Our focus at Berkshire is both to…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2020 年致股东信》· 2020 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2020 年致股东信·摘录3
The two GAAP components pertaining to capital gains or losses (whether realized or unrealized) fluctuate capriciously from year to year, reflecting…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2020 年致股东信》· 2020 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2020 年致股东信·摘录4
As I’ve emphasized many times, Charlie and I view Berkshire’s holdings of marketable stocks – at yearend worth $281 billion – as a collection of…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2021 年致股东信》· 2021 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2021 年致股东信·摘录1
Berkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2021 年致股东信》· 2021 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2021 年致股东信·摘录2
Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO.…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2021 年致股东信》· 2021 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2021 年致股东信·摘录3
I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2021 年致股东信》· 2021 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2021 年致股东信·摘录4
Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2022 年致股东信》· 2022 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2022 年致股东信·摘录1
Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2022 年致股东信》· 2022 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2022 年致股东信·摘录2
Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2022 年致股东信》· 2022 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2022 年致股东信·摘录3
One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2022 年致股东信》· 2022 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2022 年致股东信·摘录4
Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2023 年致股东信》· 2023 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2023 年致股东信·摘录1
In what I next relate, bear in mind that Charlie and his family did not have a dime invested in the small investing partnership that I was then…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2023 年致股东信》· 2023 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2023 年致股东信·摘录2
Nevertheless, Charlie, in 1965, promptly advised me: “Warren, forget about ever buying another company like Berkshire. But now that you control…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2023 年致股东信》· 2023 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2023 年致股东信·摘录3
************ Writers find it useful to picture the reader they seek, and often they are hoping to attract a mass audience. At Berkshire, we have a…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2023 年致股东信》· 2023 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2023 年致股东信·摘录4
We, however, are left uncomfortable. At Berkshire, our view is that “earnings” should be a sensible concept that Bertie will find somewhat useful –…
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投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2024 年致股东信》· 2024 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2024 年致股东信·摘录1
Sometimes I’ve made mistakes in assessing the future economics of a business I’ve purchased for Berkshire – each a case of capital allocation gone…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2024 年致股东信》· 2024 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2024 年致股东信·摘录2
Pete paused as his wife, daughter and I leaned forward. Then he surprised us: “Well, I looked at Berkshire’s proxy statement and I wouldn’t want to…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2024 年致股东信》· 2024 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2024 年致股东信·摘录3
The four of us then went to dinner at Omaha’s Happy Hollow Club and lived happily ever after. During the next 19 years, Pete shot the lights out.…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 沃伦·巴菲特《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2024 年致股东信》· 2024 Chairman's Letter
伯克希尔 2024 年致股东信·摘录4
But I’ve also had many pleasant surprises in both the potential of the business as well as the ability and fidelity of the manager. And our…
原文直读
投资 · 现代投资信
投资 · 查理·芒格《《关于基本世俗智慧的演讲》》· Opening section, “What is elementary, worldly wisdom?”
多元思维格栅
What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang…
什么是基本的世俗智慧?第一条规则是:如果你只记住孤立的事实并试图把它们硬背出来,你其实什么也不懂。如果事实不能挂在一张理论格栅上,你就没有以可用的形式掌握它们。
认知 · 学习 · 决策 · 现代投资信
投资 · 查理·芒格《《关于基本世俗智慧的演讲》》· Section on high technology and the circle of competence
能力圈的边界
And Warren and I don't feel like we have any great advantage in the high-tech sector. In fact, we feel like we're at a big disadvantage in trying…
沃伦和我并不觉得自己在高科技行业有什么巨大优势。事实上,在理解软件、计算机芯片之类技术发展的本质上,我们觉得自己处于很大劣势。所以我们倾向于避开这些东西,原因是我们在这些方面能力不足。
投资 · 决策 · 心性 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《聪明的投资者》》· Chapter 20, “Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment”
安全边际
Confronted with a like challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.
面对同样的挑战——把稳健投资的秘密浓缩成三个词——我们大胆提出这句箴言:安全边际。
投资 · 决策 · 财富 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《证券分析》》· Chapter XXXIX, “Price-Earnings Ratios for Common Stocks. Adjustments for Changes in Capitalization”
投票机与称重机
The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly but only as they affect the decisions…
股票市场是一台投票机,而不是一台称重机。它对事实数据的反应不是直接的,而只是通过这些数据对买卖双方决策的影响来体现。
投资 · 认知 · 人性 · 现代投资信
投资 · 约翰·D·洛克菲勒《《随机回忆录:人与事件》》· Chapter I, “The Value of Friendships”
为危机预留现金
We were accustomed to prepare for financial emergencies long before we needed the funds.
我们习惯于在真正需要资金之前很久,就为财务紧急情况做好准备。
财富 · 决策 · 行动 · 创业者自述
投资 · 安德鲁·卡内基《《安德鲁·卡内基自传》》· Chapter XII, “Business Negotiations”
把所有好鸡蛋放进一个篮子
I determined that the proper policy was "to put all good eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
我认定,正确的策略是‘把所有好鸡蛋放进一个篮子,然后看好这个篮子’。
投资 · 成长 · 决策 · 创业者自述
投资 · 杰夫·贝索斯《《1997年致股东信》》· “It's All About the Long Term”
长期市场领导地位
We will continue to make investment decisions in light of long-term market leadership considerations rather than short-term profitability…
我们将继续基于长期市场领导地位的考量来做投资决策,而不是基于短期盈利考量或华尔街的短期反应。
投资 · 领导 · 决策 · 现代投资信
投资 · 黄峥《《拼多多2018年致股东信》》· “Looking ahead”
长期主义的两副面孔
拼多多将是个勇于投资未来,立足长远的公司。
拼多多将敢于投资未来,着眼于长远。
投资 · 成长 · 决策 · 创业者自述
投资 · 查理·芒格《《关于基本世俗智慧的演讲》》· The models: multiple models
多模型与锤子
What are the models? Well, the first rule is that you've got to have multiple models—because if you just have one or two that you're using, the…
什么是模型?第一条规则是:你必须拥有多个模型。因为如果你只用一两个模型,人类的心理天性会让你扭曲现实,好让现实符合你的模型——至少你会以为它符合。
认知 · 决策 · 学习 · 现代投资信
投资 · 查理·芒格《《关于基本世俗智慧的演讲》》· Accounting and its limitations
会计只是近似
But you have to know enough about it to understand its limitations—because although accounting is the starting place, it's only a crude approximation.
但你必须对会计有足够的了解,才能看清它的局限——因为会计虽然是起点,却只是一种粗糙的近似。
投资 · 认知 · 决策 · 现代投资信
投资 · 查理·芒格《《关于基本世俗智慧的演讲》》· Microeconomics: commodity businesses and competition
航空业的竞争
Competition was so intense that, once it was unleashed by deregulation, it ravaged shareholder wealth in the airline business.
竞争如此激烈,以至于放松管制释放出的竞争,摧毁了航空业股东的财富。
投资 · 成长 · 人性 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《聪明的投资者》》· Introduction
防御型与进取型
The determining trait of the enterprising (or active, or aggressive) investor is his willingness to devote time and care to the selection of…
进取型(或称积极型、激进型)投资者的决定性特征,是他愿意投入时间和精力,去挑选既稳健又比一般证券更有吸引力的证券。
投资 · 心性 · 行动 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《聪明的投资者》》· Chapter 2, The Investor and Inflation
通胀与股价
There is no close time connection between inflationary (or deflationary) conditions and the movement of common-stock earnings and prices.
通货膨胀(或通货紧缩)状况与普通股盈利和价格的走势之间,并没有紧密的时间对应关系。
投资 · 历史 · 认知 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《聪明的投资者》》· Chapter 8, The Investor and Market Fluctuations
市场先生
If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr. Market’s daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000…
如果你是一位谨慎的投资者或明智的生意人,你会让市场先生的每日报价决定你对这家企业1000美元股份的看法吗?
投资 · 人性 · 决策 · 现代投资信
投资 · 本杰明·格雷厄姆《《聪明的投资者》》· Chapter 20, Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment
分散化与安全边际
Diversification is an established tenet of conservative investment. By accepting it so universally, investors are really demonstrating their…
分散化是保守投资的一项既定原则。投资者如此普遍地接受它,实际上是在表明他们接受安全边际原则——分散化正是安全边际的伙伴。
投资 · 决策 · 财富 · 现代投资信